Data publik per 8 Okt 2026
Spindo IntelligenceHarga Komoditas

Harga Komoditas

UC2, PIC Bapak Tedja

Diperbarui Kamis, 8 Okt 2026 pukul 07.00

Fakta bersumber Inferensi AI Estimasi model

HRC USD per ton

Fakta bersumberper 8 Okt 2026

Observasi SS400 3 mm FOB China. Celah tanpa observasi dihubungkan garis tipis putus putus.

Proyeksi harga, estimasi model

Observasi dan sumber

30 Jan 2026: USD 463

20 Mar 2026: USD 484

27 Mar 2026: USD 486

26 Jun 2026: USD 495

3 Jul 2026: USD 490

24 Jul 2026: USD 485

31 Jul 2026: USD 485

7 Agu 2026: USD 483

14 Agu 2026: USD 481

28 Agu 2026: USD 490

18 Sep 2026: USD 499

24 Sep 2026: USD 498

30 Sep 2026: USD 498

8 Okt 2026: USD 495

Saran waktu beli HRC

Tahan, pantau 2 minggu

Estimasi modelKeyakinan: Rendah sampai Sedangper 8 Okt 2026
Inferensi AI

Iron ore turun 8,89% sebulan dan HRC FOB turun ke USD 495 pasca libur. Ekspor HRC China meningkat. Namun stok sampel Mysteel turun 7 minggu, sementara CISA melaporkan kenaikan. Sinyal tidak searah.

Tinjauan tim pembelian: periksa stok, spesifikasi dan jadwal kebutuhan.

Keputusan pembelian tetap di tangan Bapak Tedja dan tim pembelian.

Iron ore 62% Fe

91,13

USD per ton

Turun 8,89% sebulan

per 7 Okt 2026

Coking coal

266

USD per ton

Turun 3,62% sebulan

per 7 Okt 2026

Kurs JISDOR

Rp 17.880

Rupiah per USD

Kurs referensi Bank Indonesia

per 7 Okt 2026

Stok pabrik sampel Mysteel

3,83

Juta ton

Turun 2,2% mingguan, terendah 8 bulan. CISA: naik 5,1% ke 17,08 juta ton. Dua survei berbeda arah.

per 24 Sep 2026

Ekspor HRC China, Agustus

1,52

Juta ton

Naik 12,6% tahunan, kenaikan tahunan pertama di 2026

per 24 Sep 2026

Rekomendasi bea HRC WISCO

4,87

Persen

Rekomendasi bea antidumping final KADI

per 12 Agu 2026

HRC domestik Indonesia

515

Sekitar USD FOB per ton

Penilaian harga per 27 Agt 2026

per 27 Agu 2026

Simulasi waktu beli

Estimasi model
Beli sekarang, USD 495
Rp 17.701.200.000 · USD 990.000
Model 2 minggu, USD 490
Rp 17.522.400.000 · USD 980.000
Selisih skenario
Rp 178.800.000 · USD 10.000

Ilustrasi bukan janji penghematan. Tidak termasuk freight, bea, pajak, biaya stok dan perubahan kurs.

per 8 Okt 2026

Harga HRC terbaru

Harga ekspor SS400 3 mm FOB China, USD per ton.

TanggalUSD per tonSumber
8 Okt 2026495
30 Sep 2026498
24 Sep 2026498
18 Sep 2026499
28 Agu 2026490
Fakta bersumber

Rencana uji akurasi

Target akurasi arah

80% atau lebih

Uji historis 12 bulan. Arah dihitung pada horizon 2 minggu. Perubahan di bawah 1% dihitung datar. Pembanding: asumsi harga tetap.

Definisi diusulkan, dikunci bersama di minggu 1

Indikator pendukung

Lebih hemat dari beli rutin. Dipantau sebagai indikator pendukung, bukan kriteria terpisah.

Uji maju (forward test)

Mulai Jumat, 23 Oktober 2026, setiap Jumat perkiraan model dibekukan dan disimpan, lalu dibandingkan dengan harga realisasi Mysteel. Hasilnya dibahas di check in Kamis.

Keluaran model PoC
Tanggal dibekukanPerkiraan arah 2 mingguHarga saat dibekukanHarga realisasiHasil
23 Okt 2026TerjadwalTerjadwalTerjadwalTerjadwal
30 Okt 2026TerjadwalTerjadwalTerjadwalTerjadwal
6 Nov 2026TerjadwalTerjadwalTerjadwalTerjadwal
13 Nov 2026TerjadwalTerjadwalTerjadwalTerjadwal

Simulasi pantauan, tanpa pembaruan otomatis.

Sumber halaman ini

  1. [1] China Steel Export Prices, Oct 08 (HRC SS400 dan CRC SPCC FOB China)

    Mysteel · 8 Okt 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/daily-prices/7192011-hrc-import-prices-cfr-vietnam
  2. [2] China Steel Export Prices, Sep 30

    Mysteel · 30 Sep 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/daily-prices/7181099-hrc-export-prices-fob-china
  3. [3] WEEKLY: China's HRC export prices tick higher

    Mysteel · 3 Feb 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5112380-weekly-chinas-hrc-export-prices-tick-higher
  4. [4] WEEKLY: Firm cost support, better domestic sales lift Chinese HRC export prices

    Mysteel · 24 Mar 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5117048-weekly-firm-cost-support-better-domestic-sales-lift-chinese-hrc-export-prices
  5. [5] WEEKLY: China's HRC export prices rise higher but freight rates hurt trades

    Mysteel · 31 Mar 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5117999-weekly-chinas-hrc-export-prices-rise-higher-but-freight-rates-hurt-trades
  6. [6] WEEKLY: Chinese HRC export prices dip further

    Mysteel · 1 Jul 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5130278-weekly-chinese-hrc-export-prices-dip-further
  7. [7] WEEKLY: China HRC export prices decline for 3rd week

    Mysteel · 7 Jul 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5131211-weekly-china-hrc-export-prices-decline-for-3rd-week
  8. [8] WEEKLY: China HRC export prices dip again

    Mysteel · 29 Jul 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5134166-weekly-china-hrc-export-prices-dip-again
  9. [9] WEEKLY: China's HRC export standoff continues

    Mysteel · 4 Agt 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5135086-weekly-chinas-hrc-export-standoff-continues
  10. [10] WEEKLY: China's HRC export prices edge down

    Mysteel · 11 Agt 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5136158-weekly-chinas-hrc-export-prices-edge-down
  11. [11] WEEKLY: China's HRC export prices soften again

    Mysteel · 18 Agt 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5137072-weekly-chinas-hrc-export-prices-soften-again
  12. [12] WEEKLY: China's HRC export prices rise further

    Mysteel · 31 Agt 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5138950-weekly-chinas-hrc-export-prices-rise-further
  13. [13] WEEKLY: China's HRC export prices largely steady on week

    Mysteel · 22 Sep 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5142220-weekly-chinas-hrc-export-prices-largely-steady-on-week
  14. [14] WEEKLY: China's HRC export prices mark time

    Mysteel · 29 Sep 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5142973-weekly-chinas-hrc-export-prices-mark-time
  15. [15] Ex-China CRC prices move up amid higher local CRC and HRC futures prices

    SteelOrbis · 11 Mar 2026

    https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-prices/steel-prices-market-analyses/flats-and-slab/ex-china-crc-prices-move-up-amid-higher-local-crc-and-hrc-futures-prices-1440946.htm
  16. [16] Ex-China CRC market stays flat amid cautious sentiment

    SteelOrbis · 20 Mei 2026

    https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-prices/steel-prices-market-analyses/flats-and-slab/ex-china-crc-market-stays-flat-amid-cautious-sentiment-1454562.htm
  17. [17] Iron Ore (62% Fe CFR China)

    Trading Economics · 7 Okt 2026

    https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore
  18. [18] Coking Coal (FOB Australia)

    Trading Economics · 7 Okt 2026

    https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coking-coal
  19. [20] Kurs JISDOR

    Bank Indonesia · 7 Okt 2026

    https://www.bi.go.id/en/statistik/informasi-kurs/jisdor/default.aspx
  20. [21] WEEKLY: Chinese mills' steel stocks fall 2% on week

    Mysteel · 24 Sep 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5142568-weekly-chinese-mills-steel-stocks-fall-2-on-week
  21. [22] China steelmakers cut output but inventories rise ahead of holiday

    Hellenic Shipping News · 30 Sep 2026

    https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-steelmakers-cut-output-but-inventories-rise-ahead-of-holiday/
  22. [23] China's HRC exports jump 12.6% on year to top 1.5 million tonnes in August

    Mysteel · 24 Sep 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/news/5142566-chinas-hrc-exports-jump-126-on-year-to-top-15-million-tonnes-in-august
  23. [25] Indonesia's KADI seeks 4.87% final AD duty on WISCO HRC imports

    Mysteel · 12 Agt 2026

    https://www.mysteel.net/news/5136215-indonesias-kadi-seeks-487-final-ad-duty-on-wisco-hrc-imports
  24. [26] Indonesia Steel Market Outlook 2026: Capacity Expansion Meets a Chinese Import Tsunami

    SMM · 31 Agt 2026

    https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104087211-smm-analysis-indonesia-steel-market-outlook-2026-capacity-expansion-meets-a-chinese-import-tsunami

Publikasi pasar dan laporan perusahaan per 8 Oktober 2026.